The National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5% in August 2026, in line with market expectations. Annual inflation eased to 10.42% in June, matching the central bank’s forecast. The slowdown was driven primarily by a steep drop in LFO and fuel prices, partially offset by higher natural gas and electricity tariffs.
On the activity side, GDP contracted by 1.2% in the first quarter, after a modest 0.2% expansion in the previous quarter, reflecting weaker household consumption and a negative contribution from inventory changes. The NBR anticipates a mild recovery in activity in the second and third quarters, against a backdrop of mixed dynamics across domestic demand components and economic sectors.
Looking ahead, inflation is expected to decline markedly in the wake of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT and excise duties. Following some volatility in the fourth quarter of 2026, inflation is projected to resume a gradual downward trajectory, returning to the target range by the end of 2027.
