FX.co ★ NZD/JPY

GBPNZD H4 Forecast The four-hour chart of the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen (NZDJPY) pair shows a clear ascending channel pattern, following a strong upward trend from the March lows. This ascending channel features clear successive highs and lows, forming a consistently bullish price pattern. The price is currently trading sideways around the centerline of this channel and recently broke the upper boundary at 88.30. The overall downtrend appears strong, with support above the major moving averages and trend line support. The current price level at 86.97 is at an important inflection point. The upper boundary of the channel is acting as resistance, while the lower ascending trend line is currently providing short-term support. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue provided buyers have enough confidence to re-enter the market. The area around 87.00 also acts as psychological support, further highlighting its importance. A successful defense of this area could pave the way for a retest of the 88.30-88.50 range. If momentum maintains the price above this area, the next logical target would be the psychological level of 89.00, which is close to the expected upper boundary of the extended channel. According to the chart analysis, the pair is in a typical recovery phase after a sharp reversal from the V-shaped bottom in early April. This strong recovery shifted market sentiment from bearish to bullish, leading to the current uptrend. The moving averages (especially the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) are rising in parallel, and the price has been trading above them since mid-April. These moving averages are currently forming dynamic support levels, reinforcing the upward bias. The price is currently testing the area between the 50- and 100-day moving averages. These two moving averages supported the price during the previous downtrend. The Fibonacci retracement level from the low of 80.20 to the high of 88.30 indicates a significant uptrend. The 23.6% level at 85.90 represents initial technical support below the current price and roughly coincides with the downtrend line of the ascending internal channel. A break above this level would trigger a 38.2% retracement at 84.75, while a stronger correction would trigger a 50.0% retracement at 83.73. However, as long as the price remains above the 85.50-86.00 range and maintains the trend line, the uptrend is likely to continue. The MACD indicator is showing weak upward momentum during this period, as evidenced by the recent bearish crossover and the smoothed histogram. However, the MACD remains close to the zero line, indicating that the market is in a sideways phase rather than a full-blown reversal. This is consistent with the current price action representing a gradual downtrend within a broader uptrend. Further bullish MACD crossovers, especially above the midline, could restore momentum and continue the uptrend toward the recent highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently approaching its neutral level of 47, reflecting short-term market uncertainty. The RSI has retreated from its previous position in the overbought zone, which could weaken momentum without compromising the trend structure. In a bullish market, the oscillator typically trades above the 40-45 range during a correction. As long as the RSI does not slip into the oversold zone, this can be considered a healthy upward correction. The Stochastic indicator is indicating an oversold condition, making a bullish crossover likely, which could support a short-term recovery. This signal appears near the convergence of the trendline support line and the Fibonacci middle line, giving potential buyers confidence in their technical ability to continue trading at current levels. However, caution is advised, as the oscillator may remain oversold during a strong downtrend. Price action confirmation is required. Overall, the NZD/JPY pair's trend remains bullish. The channel is holding well, and the price continues to follow the trend of rising highs. The correction from the 88.30 high has been limited so far, showing signs of a sideways movement rather than a trend reversal. Buyers are looking for stability above key support levels at 86.50-87.00 to continue the upward momentum. A break above this support could open the door to testing the 85.75-85.50 area and the 38.2% Fibonacci level around 84.75. Conversely, if bulls can reclaim the 87.70 level, the price is likely to rise to the upper boundary of the channel at 88.80-89.00. Until then, the trend remains bullish, but a decline is also likely, just like the current bullish structure.