I see the current USD/JPY structure as an uptrend on paper but a tired market in reality, and I interpret the price behavior near resistance as exhaustion rather than strength. I acknowledge that the daily chart remains formally bullish with price above all key EMAs and with the broader structure still intact, but I read the character of the candles as hesitant and non-committal. I note that the short daily candlesticks lack follow-through, and I interpret this not as consolidation for growth but as a pause caused by fading participation. I observe that the RSI is not in overbought territory, yet I feel there is no visible catalyst or internal pressure to ignite fresh momentum. I interpret this combination as balance turning into stagnation rather than controlled accumulation. I see the H4 chart reinforcing this view, because after a sharp impulsive rise I now observe compression and loss of directional clarity. I notice the 20 and 50 EMAs converging on H4, and I read this as a classic sign of momentum decay rather than trend continuation. I observe the MACD hovering near the zero line, and I interpret this as confirmation that bullish energy has already been spent. I believe that markets in this condition often drift into distribution rather than preparation for another leg higher. I see the H1 chart clearly showing supply pressure above, with price repeatedly rejected from the 156.90–157.00 resistance zone. I note that every bullish attempt on H1 is quickly absorbed and reversed, which tells me that buyers lack conviction. I acknowledge that the lows around 156.15–156.30 are still holding, but I interpret this as indecision rather than constructive basing. I see this behavior as a waiting market, not one coiling for a breakout. I observe on M15 that momentum has already rolled over, and I read the declining RSI as early confirmation of intraday weakness. I interpret the fading intraday structure as a signal that upside pressure is dissipating. I conclude that the current movement fits the profile of a corrective range rather than the birth of a new bullish impulse. I remain cautious and emotionally detached because I believe this is a zone where probability favors patience over prediction.
I was not actually discussing active trading in USD/JPY at all, because I consciously stayed away from this pair and focused only on the euro and, to a lesser extent, the pound among the major currencies over the last ten days. I decided only now to return to USD/JPY, and I did so deliberately from a higher, monthly perspective in order to summarize the past year and frame an outlook for the year that has just begun. I immediately see that the monthly chart offers a kind of certainty, but I also clearly understand that this type of certainty does not automatically translate into profit. I recognize that every trader has their own definition of certainty, and I am fully aware that mine may differ from others. I observe on the monthly chart an extraordinary, almost unreal growth cycle from the 101 level to 161.95, which represents a move of roughly sixty figures. I acknowledge that during this massive advance there were several corrective pullbacks, but I see that on the monthly timeframe they appear shallow and structurally insignificant. I note that after reaching 161.95 the pair entered a decline, and I identify the midpoint of the 138 figure as the nearest logical Fibonacci retracement target at that time. I observe that price found support around the 139 figure and then resumed growth, which naturally created the expectation that 161.95 could eventually be broken. I accept that this breakout scenario is still technically possible, and I do not dismiss it emotionally or analytically. I believe, however, that the 157–158 zone represents a key distribution area from which declines have historically shown reliability. I see this zone as a potential area for selling pressure rather than renewed accumulation. I remind myself that USD/JPY is notorious for defying consensus and invalidating seemingly perfect technical logic. I accept that if the price ignores a corrective move toward the 150 figure, which I view as a reasonable first target aligned with a moving average test, and instead breaks above 161.95, I would not be shocked. I emphasize that such a scenario would not contradict my broader understanding of this pair’s behavior. I am clear, however, that I have no intention of buying USD/JPY under current conditions. I define my stance very strictly, because if I choose to trade this major pair at all, I will only consider selling opportunities aligned with exhaustion rather than momentum.
