FX.co ★ GBP/USD

Looking at GBP/USD, I note for myself that the structure has recovered after the December decline, but the market is still within a wide range where the movement is not impulsive but rather choppy. On the daily chart, the price has returned above the EMA 50 and 100, which is already a signal in favor of recovery for me. However, the 1.3480–1.3520 area remains a strong resistance - the market has reversed here before, and now it is starting to slow down again. Candles without continuation, with shadows, represent classic behavior in a balance zone. Adding an Elliott Wave perspective, the December drop can be well interpreted as a completed corrective structure. I view the current rise as a new impulsive phase, where waves 1 and 2 have already formed, and the market is currently either in the middle of wave 3 or closer to its completion transitioning into a local pause. On the H4 chart, the upward movement appears more mature. The impulse from the lows has been worked out, and the price is now moving sideways below local highs. Wave-wise, this looks like the formation of wave 4 - a shallow correction without breaking the overall structure. The EMA 20 and 50 are holding from below, which currently favors buyers. The H1 chart shows a neat recovery after a pullback. The price is holding above 1.3450–1.3460, there is an impulse, but it is no longer sharp. To me, this looks like a continuation within the movement rather than the start of a new acceleration. On the M15 chart, the structure appears as a small five-wave upward movement followed by a pause. This often precedes either a continuation of the rise after a pullback or a broader correction within the range. I set key levels for myself as follows. Resistance - 1.3480–1.3520. Support - 1.3450, below that - 1.3400 as a level, the loss of which would cast doubt on the current wave picture. Overall, the Elliott Wave analysis allows for further upside, but I do not perceive it as the beginning of a strong trend. Rather, it seems to be a recovery phase after a correction.