I am analyzing the USD/CHF currency pair using a technical approach based on support and resistance levels combined with RSI and AO indicators, and I note that the pair has already completed a solid downward move and reached its projected target before showing signs of a reversal. I am observing on the chart that price has tested the important support level near 0.7960 and is currently trading slightly higher around 0.7969, which suggests that sellers may be losing control in the short term. I am watching the RSI closely and I see that it is moving back toward the middle of its range, and although the upward slope is hesitant, it still indicates a gradual reduction in bearish pressure. I am also paying attention to the Awesome Oscillator, and I notice that it is forming a relatively clean reversal signal, which often precedes short-term corrective growth. I am aware that the USD/CHF pair is still trading below the previous day’s range, and this tells me that the bullish signals should be treated with caution rather than aggressive confidence. I am interpreting the combination of these indicators as mixed but slightly supportive of a modest upward correction rather than a strong impulsive rally. I am considering the broader price structure and I assume that the market may attempt to move toward the upper boundary of the current descending or sideways channel over the next 24 hours. I am therefore projecting a potential recovery move toward the resistance zone near 0.8010, which aligns well with prior reaction highs and technical resistance. I am setting a more conservative and realistic target near 0.8005, as I believe this level could be reached even if buying pressure remains limited. I am emphasizing that any long positions in this context should be approached cautiously, since the overall trend has recently been bearish and the current signals are corrective in nature. I am factoring in the possibility of sudden volatility, as USD/CHF can react sharply to unexpected macroeconomic or sentiment-driven news. I am reminding myself that risk management is crucial in this setup, and I would prefer smaller position sizes and clearly defined stop-loss levels. I am ultimately viewing this scenario as a short-term tactical opportunity rather than a strategic trend reversal, and I am prepared to reassess my bias quickly if the price fails to hold above the 0.7960 support or if momentum indicators lose their current positive inclination.
I am reviewing the USD/CHF market from a technical perspective and I note that the recent bearish movement has attracted attention due to the apparent alignment with Elliott Wave Analysis on the H1 timeframe. I am interpreting the price action as a possible developing five-wave impulsive structure to the downside, although I remain cautious because the structural clarity is still insufficient for a confident bearish continuation scenario. I am particularly focused on the key horizontal level at 0.7956, since I recognize that without a clean and impulsive break below this level, any assumptions about a sustained downward trend remain premature. I am observing that the proposed local fourth wave lacks convincing confirmation, as the corrective overlap and internal subdivisions do not yet meet the textbook requirements of a completed wave four. I am also questioning the validity of the first wave itself, because its momentum profile and internal structure do not fully align with what I would typically expect from a genuine impulsive start. I am therefore considering the alternative scenario in which the current decline is not an impulse at all, but rather the final stage of a broader corrective pattern. I am inclined to view this correction as a completed double zigzag, especially given the proportional relationships between the corrective legs and the evident loss of bearish momentum. I am analyzing the MACD indicator and I see clear signs of weakening downside pressure, as the histogram is contracting and the signal lines are struggling to expand in bearish territory. I am comparing price behavior relative to the moving averages 55, 89, and 144, and I notice that price is hesitating around these dynamic levels instead of accelerating away from them, which further undermines the impulse thesis. I am aware that in strong bearish impulses price usually respects the faster moving averages as resistance, but I am not seeing consistent rejection from these levels at the moment. I am also factoring in market sentiment, and I sense that sellers may already have realized a significant portion of their profits, reducing the probability of immediate continuation. I am therefore maintaining a neutral-to-cautious bearish bias, waiting either for a decisive breakdown below 0.7956 to confirm a true impulsive wave or for bullish signals that would validate the corrective completion scenario. I am ultimately prioritizing confirmation over prediction, because I know that entering based on an unconfirmed wave count exposes me to unnecessary risk in a market that may already be transitioning into a new corrective or even reversal phase.
