FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

I see Monday’s candle as a potential exhaustion signal rather than a clean reversal, because I notice the long lower shadow shows that sellers pushed hard but failed to hold price at the lows. I track the reaction from 4402 as important because I observe that buyers stepped in exactly where panic selling slowed. I interpret the failed continuation below 4410 after my missed buy stop at 4413 as evidence that liquidity was taken and the market rejected lower prices. I consider the early European session bounce as a sign that intraday sentiment has shifted north, at least temporarily. I rely on the H4 indicators pointing to growth because I see alignment between momentum and structure on this timeframe. I target 4938 as the first serious intraday resistance because I recognize it as the nearest supply where sellers may attempt to regain control. I expect that if 4938 is broken and held, I will see stronger buying interest and an extension toward 5139. I believe that consolidation above 5139 would open the path for a broader bullish continuation into the next sessions. I also remain aware that the larger trend context still favors a decline, so I treat this upward movement as a correction inside a bigger bearish structure.

I acknowledge the alternative scenario where I see sellers defending either 4935 or 5139 and attempting to resume the broader downtrend. I interpret the priority of decline on higher timeframes as a warning that yesterday’s rise may only be a corrective bounce. I focus on the 4508–4938 range because I expect price to rotate within this corridor during today’s session. I watch 4508 closely because I know that a clean break below it would expose the path toward the monthly support at 4307. I observe that price is currently at 4755 above the hourly XamaSystem indicator, which supports my short-term bullish view. I note that price remains below the hourly moving average at 5107, which I treat as a magnet and a potential reversal zone. I expect a break above today’s high at 4861 to confirm continued upside toward the moving average. I prepare for a possible sell reaction from the moving average if price rejects it. I also prepare for a stronger bullish continuation toward 5440 if price breaks and consolidates above the moving average.