XAUUSD Fundamental and Technical Analysis of the gold Market Focus pair: Gold/Dollar Current price 4768.57 USD Time Frame: 1-HOUR Fundamental Analysis Golds surge to around $4,768 per ounce in early February 2026 stems from a cocktail of global uncertainties pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with U.S. tariff threats under a potential Trump administration, have eroded confidence in fiat currencies, bolstering golds appeal. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue aggressive buying to diversify reserves amid fears of U.S. dollar weaponization. The Federal Reserves policy remains pivotal; any hint of delayed rate cuts or independence erosion could fuel inflation worries, supporting higher prices. Industrial demand stays robust from electronics and renewables, though jewelry consumption softens in high-price environments. Economic slowdown signals, like weakening U.S. growth, might prompt deeper rate reductions, potentially lifting gold 5-15% this year if conditions worsen.However, a stronger dollar or resolved conflicts could cap gains, with some forecasts eyeing a peak mid-month before pullbacks to $4,550 support.Overall, fundamentals lean bullish but volatile, hinging on macro surprises.
Technical Analysis 
Chart Analysis Examining the 1-hour Gold/USD chart from January 23 to February 3, 2026, using ICT, price action, and SMC principles reveals a dominant bullish structure with signs of potential exhaustion. Starting from a lower low around $4,300, price formed a higher low (HL) near $4,500, confirming uptrend continuity via higher highs (HH) and HLs. A clear break of structure (BOS) upward occurred after breaching prior resistance, sweeping liquidity from sell-side stops and filling a fair value gap (FVG) above $4,600, typical SMC manipulation by smart money to induce retail traps. Price action shows strong bullish candles with long wicks on pullbacks, indicating absorption of selling pressure at order blocks (OBs) around $4,700, where institutions likely accumulated. Volume spikes align with these BOS moments, suggesting institutional participation rather than retail noise. However, the recent drop to $4,768 forms a lower low (LL) attempt, hinting at a choch (change of character) if it breaks below the last HL. ICT concepts point to a possible liquidity grab at $4,800 before resuming up, but overextended RSI and doji formations signal weakening momentum. Watch for rejection at $4,900 HH for continuation or breakdown to $4,550 LL for reversal. Risk remains high in this volatile setup.
Trade Setup Bullish continuation after recent BOS and liquidity sweep.
Entry: Buy at 4,775 – 4,780 (retest of broken structure + order block zone)
Stop Loss: 4,745 (below recent swing low and invalidation point)
Risk: 1% of account (≈35 points risk per trade)
Target 1: 4,850
Target 2: 4,920–4,940 Only take if strong bullish rejection candle forms at entry zone.
