FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) H1 Timeframe Technical & Fundamental Analysis. On the H1 chart, Bitcoin is clearly trading within a dominant bearish trend, as price action remains firmly below its key dynamic resistance zones marked by the major moving averages. The recent structure shows a strong impulsive sell-off from the 96,000–98,800 supply region, followed by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained bearish market control. The red fast-moving average has sharply crossed below the medium and long-term averages, while all moving averages are now sloping downward, signaling strong downside momentum and institutional distribution rather than retail-driven volatility. Price is currently consolidating around the 78,400 psychological zone after printing a sharp capitulation low near 74,000–75,000, which acts as an immediate short-term demand area. However, this consolidation appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting a classic bearish pause before potential continuation. Volume analysis supports this view, as the strongest volume expansion occurred during the breakdown from 88,900 and again below 81,500, highlighting aggressive selling pressure. The 78,000–79,000 zone is acting as a minor intraday balance area, but structurally it sits well below the broken support at 81,500 and the prior breakdown base near 84,000–86,400, which now form a strong resistance cluster. Any bullish attempts into these levels are likely to be met with renewed selling, especially near the downward-sloping H1 moving average resistance around 86,000. From a price structure perspective, the market has not yet produced a higher high or a meaningful bullish reversal pattern; instead, it is forming weak-bodied candles and shallow pullbacks, a classic sign of bearish continuation risk rather than accumulation.

From a broader fundamental and sentiment standpoint, Bitcoin remains under pressure due to ongoing risk-off behavior in global markets, tightening liquidity conditions, and cautious institutional positioning following recent volatility spikes. Short-term traders are reacting to macro uncertainty, leading to defensive positioning and reduced appetite for aggressive dip-buying. On the H1 execution level, the preferred trading bias remains bearish below the 84,000–86,400 resistance zone, with sell-on-rally strategies offering higher probability setups. A potential short entry zone lies between 81,500 and 83,000 if price retests this area and shows rejection, with a protective stop-loss above 86,500 to guard against a trend invalidation. Downside targets for continuation sit first at 76,500, followed by the critical liquidity pool near 74,000, and extended bearish targets toward 71,800 if panic selling resumes. Alternatively, if Bitcoin manages a strong bullish breakout and sustained H1 close above 86,500 with rising volume, this would signal a short-term trend shift, opening upside recovery targets toward 89,000 and 91,400; however, such a scenario currently has lower probability given the prevailing structure. Traders should also remain alert to false breakout risks near the 78,000–79,000 zone, as liquidity sweeps can occur before continuation. Overall, the technical structure, moving average alignment, volume behavior, and fundamental backdrop all align in favor of a bearish continuation bias on the H1 timeframe, with rallies viewed as selling opportunities until the market proves otherwise through clear structural reversal and sustained reclaim of key resistance levels.