FX.co ★ EUR/USD

Currency pair EURUSD - D1 chart. On the daily chart under consideration, it is visible how since the end of January the price moved down in a cycle of five waves - a complete cycle. This development was long indicated by the weekly MACD indicator - it showed a significant and bold bearish divergence, which has now played out. The price exited at a significant low of 1.1470 in the fifth wave, while a bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator used. After the downward cycle from the low zone, or in other words, the buying zone, one could start looking for upward entry points. It is evident how the price started moving upwards from there. Not immediately, of course, but the price managed to break through all the resistances encountered along the way. The price was bouncing off the descending lines downwards, and I expected the price to at least exceed the maximum of the fourth wave. And ultimately, the rise played out. A certain stabilization of the situation regarding Iran and statements by the American President Trump played a significant role in this. If we overlay a Fibonacci retracement grid on the entire previous decline, it can be noticed that the 50 percent level coincides precisely with the peak of the fourth wave, indirectly confirming the correctness of the target for growth. The maximum level reached by the price surge is the resistance level of 1.1762, even beyond the 61.8 level on the Fibonacci grid. The level of 1.1762 is a mirror level at the edge of growth on the weekly chart, a very strong level. This is the best place to sell. There is a high probability of developing a downward wave that will reach the range between 1.1300 and 1.1400. Of course, there is a support level at 1.1622 on the way, and a decline is expected towards that area, with a likely struggle between sellers and buyers near it. I wouldn't count on significant growth from that level, only on a rebound, followed by an expected breakthrough and downward movement to update the March low. The slight overshoot above the resistance can be attributed to a margin of error. The level is not precise, more like a zone.

Looking at the dollar index on the weekly chart, it can be seen that it has returned right to the mirror level at the edge of the decline, a very strong support. An index rise is expected, consequently leading to a decrease in the euro.