FX.co ★ USD/JPY

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the USD/JPY The USD/JPY exchange rate remained steady near 160.37 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, holding above the major psychological threshold of 160.00 as investors monitored both central bank policy signals and the possibility of intervention from Japanese authorities. The pair continues to move within a broad consolidation structure on the H4 timeframe, with price action fluctuating within a well-defined range since the beginning of March. One of the most important bullish zones on the chart is the 158.50–158.80 support area, which has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and triggered strong rebounds. Multiple higher lows formed in this region suggest that institutional buyers remain active, making this area a key demand base for the broader trend. The significance of this support corridor is strengthened by the positioning of the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently aligns around the same region and acts as a longer-term dynamic support barrier. As long as the pair trades above this moving average, the medium-term outlook continues to favor bullish continuation rather than a major reversal. On the upside, the market faces persistent resistance between 159.80 and 160.20, a supply zone that has repeatedly blocked bullish breakout attempts over recent sessions. Sellers have consistently emerged around this range, creating upper shadow rejections and limiting upward momentum. A confirmed H4 candle close above 160.20 would likely signal a breakout from the prolonged sideways structure. It could accelerate bullish momentum toward the next resistance levels near 160.74, followed by the broader resistance cluster around 161.69–161.95. A closer look at the H1 chart reveals tighter short-term trading dynamics. Immediate intraday support is concentrated between 159.00 and 159.40, where dip buyers have consistently entered the market during temporary pullbacks. Meanwhile, short-term selling pressure remains strongest in the 160.00–160.40 area, highlighted by several failed breakout attempts and rejection candles. Despite this consolidation, moving-average positioning still supports the broader bullish narrative. On both the H1 and H4 timeframes, the 20-period SMA continues to trade above the 50-period SMA, a classic signal that upward momentum remains dominant in the short term. The 20-SMA continues to function as immediate dynamic support during minor retracements, while the 50-SMA acts as a deeper structural support zone protecting the broader uptrend. Maintaining price stability above these moving averages is important for sustaining bullish momentum. However, if the pair starts trading below the 20-SMA and bearish crossover pressure develops between the two moving averages, the market could shift toward a stronger corrective phase targeting the 158.50–158.80 support region. A breakdown beneath this critical demand zone would significantly weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper downside levels near 157.70–157.33, which represent major support areas from a higher-timeframe perspective. The Japanese yen has recently found limited support from renewed speculation surrounding potential foreign exchange intervention by Japanese officials. Policymakers in Tokyo have repeatedly warned that excessive currency volatility remains undesirable, particularly as geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect global markets and energy prices. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama recently emphasized that authorities remain highly alert regarding speculative yen weakness, increasing market caution around aggressive USD/JPY upside positioning. At the same time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, a widely anticipated decision. Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank remains open to additional monetary tightening if inflationary pressures continue broadening throughout the economy. Nevertheless, many analysts believe Japan’s deeply negative real yield environment may continue limiting long-term yen strength. In the United States, the Federal Reserve also left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range, while acknowledging that elevated inflation partly reflects rising global energy costs. Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. economic releases, including first-quarter GDP growth figures and the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which could significantly influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy and the next directional move in the USD/JPY currency pair.