On the H1 timeframe, the 200 SMA line sits at 78,837, representing a major support zone below current prices, while the 50 SMA line is positioned at 81,350, acting as immediate resistance just above. On the H4 chart, the 200 SMA line resides at 75,848, serving as a significant long-term demand zone further down, while the 50 SMA line is at 79,950, providing dynamic support beneath. The current price of 81,110 trades above both the H4 50 SMA at 79,950 and the H1 200 SMA at 78,837, but remains slightly below the H1 50 SMA at 81,350, indicating bullish momentum with a minor overhead hurdle. The key support areas are outlined as follows. Primary support occupies the 79,100 to 79,500 band, representing the short-term holder cost base and the true market mean near 78,200 to 78,800. Secondary support resides at 78,200 to 78,800, encompassing the H1 200 SMA and the true market mean level. Tertiary support sits at 75,800 to 76,500, aligning with the H4 200 SMA and representing a major demand zone. Additional support levels include 73,000 to 74,000, 70,000 to 71,000, and 66,000 to 67,000 as progressively deeper demand zones. The key resistance areas are outlined as follows. Primary resistance occupies the 81,350 to 81,800 band, representing the H1 50 SMA and the current price vicinity. Secondary resistance resides at 82,500 to 83,000, marking an intermediate barrier before the next major level. Tertiary resistance sits at 84,000 to 84,500, representing a psychological round number and a significant supply zone. Additional resistance levels include 85,000 to 85,500, 87,000 to 87,500, and 90,000 to 91,000 as upper boundaries. A break above the 78,200 true market mean and 79,100 short-term holder cost base confirmed the bullish shift.
Bitcoin climbed above 81,000, with profit indicators now turning positive, suggesting market conditions may be stabilizing after months of sluggish performance. A break above the 78,200 true market mean and 79,100 short-term holder cost base confirmed the bullish shift. These levels represent the average buying price of the active trading supply and the price of tokens moved over the past 155 days. The 30-day simple moving average of net realized profit and loss has turned positive, now accounting for 0.003 percent of market value, after spending several weeks in negative territory. The focus is now on whether demand can absorb growing seller pressure, especially from long-term holders. Realized profits from tokens held for more than a year have risen to about 180 million dollars per day on a 14-day moving average, a level comparable to past distribution phases. This suggests long-term holders are beginning to take advantage of price improvements to lock in profits, although the scale of distribution remains modest and well below peak cycle levels. Realized losses remain elevated at approximately 479 million dollars per day, indicating some short-term friction. On the institutional side, demand for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has picked up, with net inflows moving the 30-day moving average significantly positive after a lengthy outflow period. This reversal points to a clear change in institutional sentiment, which previously experienced significant allocations during the market decline from late 2025 to early 2026. The rebound in inflows coincided with Bitcoin's recovery from a low near 66,000 to the 80,000 range, indicating traditional investors are re-entering the market as prices recover. The most probable scenario is continued upward momentum as long as Bitcoin holds above the 79,100 to 79,500 support zone. Conversely, if ETF inflows continue to strengthen, they could absorb the seller pressure and drive prices toward higher resistance zones. The key question remains whether buyer liquidity can maintain momentum amid increased long-term holder allocations. The 81,350 resistance represents the immediate hurdle, while the 79,100 support serves as the critical line in the sand for the bullish structure. A break above 81,350 would target 82,500 to 83,000, while a fall below 79,100 would expose the true market mean at 78,200.
