The Australian Dollar is trading with a stronger backbone now, and the reason is bigger than one clean intraday push. TD Securities’ view fits the price action well: Australia may be entering a rare phase where the RBA continues tightening while the Fed moves toward rate cuts. That kind of policy divergence is usually powerful for AUD because it shifts the yield story in Australia’s favor. The RBA has already been in hiking mode, and if another hike comes later while the Fed starts easing, traders will have a clear reason to keep buying Aussie dips. Add Australia’s net energy exporter status into the mix, especially with energy markets still sensitive to geopolitical risk, and AUD/USD has a stronger fundamental floor than it had earlier in the year.
AUD/USD Pushes Into Fresh Bullish Territory The H4 chart shows a clean bullish structure. Price has climbed from the 0.7130–0.7150 region and is now pressing near 0.7259, right at the horizontal resistance zone. The move has been steady, not messy. Buyers defended the moving average area, then pushed through the mid-range with strong blue candles. That tells us the market is not just drifting higher; it is being actively accumulated. The upper Bollinger Band is expanding as price rides near the top side, which confirms stronger volatility in favor of buyers.
Buyers Keep Control Above the Moving Averages Buyer pressure is dominant as long as AUD/USD holds above 0.7225–0.7230. The latest candles show only mild hesitation near resistance, not a serious rejection. The pair is trading well above the short-term moving average, while the broader moving average structure continues to slope upward. That usually supports dip-buying behavior. Sellers are present near 0.7260, but they have not managed to force a deep pullback yet. For now, they are slowing the move, not reversing it.
Support, Resistance, and Pullback Zones Immediate resistance sits at 0.7260. A clean H4 close above this level would open the path toward 0.7280 and then 0.7300. If momentum extends, 0.7350 becomes the next wider target. On the downside, first support is around 0.7230, followed by 0.7215. A deeper pullback toward 0.7200 would still look healthy if buyers defend it. The stronger support area sits around 0.7180–0.7190, near the moving average base. A break below that zone would weaken the bullish structure.
Indicators Confirm Strong Momentum The indicators are supporting the bullish case. RSI is around 66, close to the upper zone but not yet in extreme overbought territory. That shows buyers have strong momentum, though chasing directly into resistance still carries risk. MACD is positive and rising, with histogram strength improving, confirming bullish pressure. Stochastic has turned higher again, showing renewed short-term buying momentum. The setup is bullish, but the market may still pause briefly near 0.7260 before extending.
Final View: Bullish Bias, But Watch the Breakout AUD/USD looks strong both fundamentally and technically. The RBA-Fed policy divergence gives the Aussie a clean macro argument, while the chart confirms buyers are defending dips and building higher levels. The bullish path needs a break above 0.7260 to target 0.7300 and beyond. The bearish risk only starts to matter if price slips below 0.7230, and especially below 0.7200. For now, this is a buy-the-dip market, not a sell-the-rally market. The only thing buyers need now is a confirmed breakout above the ceiling.
