NZD/USD Timeframe H4 
On the H4 timeframe, NZD/USD is currently showing a market condition in a bearish consolidation phase after previously experiencing a fairly solid uptrend in early to mid-May. The price structure is starting to show a weakening bullish momentum, especially after failing to hold its position around the peak area of 0.5965 and then experiencing a sharp downward correction. The recent movement shows the price still hovering around the 100 Moving Average and 200 Moving Average, indicating that the market is in a phase of determining the next direction. The blue 100 MA is still slightly above the red 200 MA, so the medium-term bullish trend structure is not completely lost. However, the slope of the 100 MA is starting to decrease and move flatter, indicating that the strength of buyers is weakening. Meanwhile, the 200 MA is still relatively stable and tends to be horizontal, indicating that the market is losing trend momentum and entering a sideways phase. The current price moving around these two moving averages shows a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the horizontal resistance side, the 0.5854 area is the nearest resistance currently being tested by the price. This level is significant as it is right around the 200 MA and serves as a market equilibrium area in the last few sessions. As long as the price is unable to consistently break above the 0.5854 area, the possibility of bearish pressure remains open. If buyers manage to push the price up and close strongly above that resistance, the next upside target is at the 0.5938 area. This area was previously an important support before breaking down in mid-May, thus now serving as a strong resistance. If the bullish momentum strengthens further and the price manages to surpass 0.5938, the potential for an advance towards a major resistance around 0.5986 will widen. This level is the highest point in the previous uptrend structure and acts as a crucial boundary to confirm the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend. A breakout above 0.5986 will signal that buyers are back in control of the market and open up broader upside potential for NZD/USD. However, looking at the recent price action structure, bearish pressure is still evident. The sharp decline following the failure to hold in the peak area indicates significant selling pressure. Additionally, some recent candles show rejection at the MA and minor resistance area, indicating that buyers are still struggling to build a stable upward momentum. On the support side, the 0.5823 area is the nearest support currently crucial to maintain. This level has been a rebound point for the price in several recent sessions, making it a short-term demand area. As long as the price holds above 0.5823, the possibility of consolidation or technical rebound remains. However, if this support is breached with strong bearish pressure, the market may potentially decline towards the next support area around 0.5788. The 0.5788 area is an important support as it was the starting point of the price rally in early May. Buyer reaction is likely to reappear in that area. If selling pressure continues to dominate and the price successfully breaks below 0.5788, the decline may continue towards a major support around 0.5732. This level is a crucial area that will determine whether the medium-term bullish structure can still be maintained or if it will fully turn bearish. Overall, NZD/USD is currently in a neutral to slightly bearish condition as the price begins to move below the pressure of the 100 MA and 200 MA. The market structure is not entirely bearish as the 100 MA is still above the 200 MA, but the weakening bullish momentum is becoming apparent. The sideways price movement near the moving averages indicates that the market is awaiting new catalysts to determine the next direction. If the price manages to move back above 0.5854 and maintain its position above both moving averages, the opportunity for a bullish recovery towards 0.5938 remains open. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the 0.5823 support and moves back down below that area, the bearish pressure may become more dominant with targets for decline towards 0.5788 and 0.5732. In such conditions, horizontal support and resistance areas become crucial factors to watch for traders as they will determine the validity of breakouts or reversals in the next movements of NZD/USD.
