FX.co ★ EUR/USD

The Federal Reserve’s June meeting, marking the debut of Kevin Warsh as Chair, delivered a policy hold that proved significantly more hawkish than the market had anticipated. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously kept the federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, the accompanying policy statement and economic projections signaled a definitive shift in the central bank’s posture. In a departure from the fractured committee dynamic seen in previous months, the 12–0 vote demonstrated a newfound cohesion, with the FOMC abandoning its previous easing bias. The updated language replaced vague forward-looking adjustments with an explicit, singular commitment to price stability, while simultaneously upgrading the outlook for labor productivity and capital investment. The most potent signal of this hawkish pivot was the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The median 2026 federal funds projection climbed to approximately 3.8%, a marked increase from the 3.4% median in March. This shift transformed the market’s expected policy trajectory from one of rate cuts to one of potential hikes, with nearly half of the Committee now penciling in an increase before the end of the year. This aggressive revaluation was driven by a blowout in inflation forecasts; the median 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) projection leaped to 3.6% from 2.7%, and core PCE was revised upward to 3.3%. Crucially, these higher inflation projections persisted even as oil prices moderated following the US-Iran framework agreement, signaling that the Committee now views inflationary pressures as deeply entrenched rather than merely a temporary byproduct of energy shocks.

Chair Warsh’s inaugural press conference served as a manifesto for his tenure, characterized by a deliberate move away from the "hand-holding" communication style of his predecessors. By launching five internal task forces to audit the Fed’s operations, balance sheet, and communication framework, Warsh signaled an intention to fundamentally overhaul the institution. Most notably, he signaled that the Fed would move away from its heavy reliance on the "dot plot" and forward guidance, opting instead for a data-dependent, less predictable approach. Warsh’s refusal to submit his own projection for the dot plot reinforced this theme, leaving markets to grapple with a central bank that is prioritizing flexibility over explicit promises. Market reactions were immediate and sharp. CME FedWatch data now reflects a significantly tightened outlook, with a rate increase by September priced as a near coin-flip, and approximately 75% of traders anticipating higher rates by December. The live debate in financial markets has officially shifted from the timing of the next rate cut to the speed and frequency of future hikes. This fundamental pivot has created a hostile environment for the Euro, which is now contending with a widening Dollar yield advantage. Given this shift, rallies in the EUR/USD pair, particularly toward the 1.1550–1.1600 band, are increasingly viewed as selling opportunities unless incoming data forces the Fed to retreat from its revived inflation anxieties. With the pair now trading below 1.1550, the 1.1500 handle stands as the critical support level, and a decisive break beneath it would further confirm that the Dollar has successfully asserted dominance for the remainder of the year.