FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD 4H Technical Analysis EUR/USD is still respecting the broader bearish structure that I discussed in my last analysis, where I highlighted that sellers remained in control unless price could establish acceptance above the major resistance area. The recent recovery from the channel low has now reached the SBR ZONE around 1.14230, which is acting as a decisive technical level. I can see price testing this area after forming a strong bullish correction, but the rejection through a bearish engulfing candle near 1.14268 suggests that buyers are struggling to maintain momentum at resistance. The previous BOS remains valid and continues to support the overall bearish market structure, while the descending SELL TREND channel has not been violated. I believe this recovery should still be treated as a retracement inside the existing downtrend rather than the beginning of a fresh bullish phase. Volume increased during the recent upward movement, but it has not been enough to confirm a structural shift because price is still reacting below the upper boundary of the channel. As I mentioned in my previous analysis, the key expectation was for sellers to defend the resistance area before attempting another bearish leg, and the current reaction is matching that view. Unless buyers achieve a sustained close above the SBR ZONE and invalidate the channel resistance, I continue to see rallies as selling opportunities instead of trend reversals.

From my perspective, the next few 4H candles will be critical because they will decide whether the rejection develops into full trend continuation. The projected downside path on the chart aligns with the existing bearish channel and indicates that price could gradually move toward 1.13500, followed by 1.13000, while an extended bearish move may eventually target the lower channel support near 1.12200-1.12100 if selling pressure accelerates. I will continue watching for fresh bearish confirmations below 1.14230 because failure to reclaim this level would strengthen the probability of another impulsive decline. If price produces another BOS in the bearish direction, it would reinforce the current market structure and confirm that sellers remain firmly in control. On the other hand, a decisive 4H close above 1.14268 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook and delay the expected continuation, although the broader SELL TREND would still require further confirmation before changing. For now, I remain focused on the bearish scenario because the combination of the SBR ZONE rejection, BEARISH ENGULFING, existing BOS, and descending channel continues to favor sellers. As long as these technical factors remain intact, I expect EUR/USD to respect the prevailing trend and gradually continue moving lower over the coming sessions.