FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

XAU/USD Daily Technical Analysis XAU/USD is developing exactly around the structure that I discussed in my last analysis, where I expected the recovery after the sharp decline to remain corrective unless buyers could reclaim higher resistance levels. The recent bounce from the low near 3957.533 has produced a respectable recovery, but price is now approaching the major resistance cluster between the purple supply area and the 0.618 FVG around 4218.705. I can see that the BOS formed earlier remains an important structural reference, while the latest bullish candles are still trading below the LAST CONFIRM HIGH near 4380.147. This tells me that the current move is still a retracement rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The recovery has already entered the QR+FVG region around 4185.774, where sellers may begin defending their positions again. I also notice that price is reacting between the 0.5 level at 4168.837 and the 0.618 level, making this area critical for the next directional move. Volume increased during the rebound from point (A), showing that buyers have stepped in after the previous impulsive decline, but the overall market structure has not changed yet. As mentioned in my previous analysis, I remained cautious about chasing bullish momentum because the broader bearish sequence was still intact, and the current recovery continues to support that expectation until resistance levels are decisively broken.

From my perspective, the next phase depends entirely on how price behaves inside the current resistance zone. If sellers successfully defend the QR+FVG together with the 0.618 Fib and the surrounding supply area, I expect another bearish rejection that could initiate the projected move toward point (C). The descending projection on the chart aligns with the previous bearish impulse and suggests that XAU/USD could revisit 4030.694 before attempting another move toward the previous swing low near 3957.533. A break below that level would strengthen the existing bearish structure and increase the probability of extending losses toward lower prices. I will continue monitoring for bearish confirmation through rejection candles, declining bullish momentum, or another BOS in favor of sellers before considering fresh short positions. However, if buyers manage to secure a strong daily close above 4218.705 and maintain acceptance inside the upper resistance area, the probability of an extended correction toward the LAST CONFIRM HIGH around 4380.147 would improve significantly. Even in that scenario, I would still require additional confirmation before considering the broader trend to have changed. For now, I remain aligned with the outlook from my last analysis because the recovery still appears corrective, the BOS remains valid, the QR+FVG resistance has not been cleared, and the overall structure continues to favor a bearish continuation once the retracement loses momentum.