Good afternoon. I'd like to share my views on the GBP/USD currency pair based on my technical analysis. As of this afternoon, price movements have not shown significant volatility, and gains have remained relatively limited around the 1.3220 level. Looking back at last week's movement, selling pressure did dominate, leading the price to break through the 1.3150 support area. However, this breakout was not followed by a significant decline. Instead, the price reversed direction and consolidated around the breakout area. This indicates that selling pressure is weakening, especially as the price has touched horizontal support and the lower Bollinger Bands. Furthermore, the MACD histogram has now broken above the signal line, signaling the influx of buying pressure, opening the possibility of an upward correction towards the nearest supply area around 1.3300.
When observed on the H4 timeframe, the main trend structure remains bearish. However, bullish momentum is beginning to emerge in the short term. This is evident from the candlestick position, which has managed to remain above the middle Bollinger Bands, while the MACD histogram continues to rise and consistently remains above the signal line. This condition indicates that buyers are beginning to dominate price movements in the short term. Currently, the price is also testing the 50 Moving Average area. If it successfully breaks out and holds above this level, the opportunity for an increase towards the supply area at 1.3300 will increase. Meanwhile, on the Daily timeframe, market conditions remain in oversold territory. After the price touched a key support level, sellers were unable to maintain pressure, leading to a deeper decline. Conversely, a fairly strong buying reaction has emerged, reinforced by a bullish signal from the H4 timeframe. With this combination of technical confirmations, I still see the possibility of an upward correction in the short term. Therefore, a buy scenario around 1.3200 remains attractive, with an initial target of 1.3250. If buying momentum continues, the next target is the nearest supply zone around 1.3300, in line with the consistent rise in the MACD histogram. Overall, although last week's major trend was still dominated by sellers, strong resistance from buyers is now beginning to emerge. The price's failure to break through key support signals that selling pressure is losing steam, opening the possibility of a reversal phase, or at least a higher correction. As long as the price remains above the support area and technical indicators continue to provide positive confirmation, I will focus more on seeking buying opportunities in accordance with the trading plan outlined above. Of course, all of these scenarios must be accompanied by sound risk management, as market conditions can change at any time if new sentiments emerge that influence price movements. I hope this analysis provides additional reference and is useful for fellow traders.
