Good afternoon,
Allow me to discuss the movement of the USD/CHF currency pair. In my opinion, USD/CHF is currently in a very strong uptrend. In fact, in the past few weeks, the rise has been quite impulsive, reaching the 0.813 level. However, looking at the price history, this level represents a fairly strong resistance area, having been the point of rejection several times. The same thing is being seen again now, where the price was rejected from the 0.813 area and corrected to near 0.808. However, in my opinion, this decline more reflects profit-taking by buyers and the entry of some traders trying to open sell positions in the resistance area. As long as this correction doesn't change the structure of the price movement, I still believe the main trend remains bullish. Judging by technical indicators on the daily timeframe, the price is still moving above the middle Bollinger Band and the 50-day Moving Average. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands are still opening upward, indicating that upward momentum is maintained. The MACD indicator also supports this scenario, as evidenced by the histogram remaining in the positive area, indicating that buying pressure remains quite dominant. As long as these conditions persist, the price remains quite open to continue rising. However, I anticipate a healthier correction before the uptrend resumes. If the price falls again, the 0.800 area, or around the middle Bollinger Band, becomes an attractive zone to watch for a re-entry buy opportunity, provided confirmation emerges that buyers have regained control of the market. Meanwhile, on the H4 timeframe, technical conditions are starting to indicate weakening momentum. Although the trend structure remains up, the MACD indicator has moved down, breaking through the signal line and even approaching the zero line. On the other hand, the price has also fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that buying pressure is waning in the short term. However, the price remains above the 50-day moving average, so the uptrend is not yet over. Given these conditions, I see two possible outcomes. If buyers regain dominance, allowing the price to rise above the middle Bollinger Band, and then the MACD crosses above the signal line again, the chance of further upside increases. Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies to the point where the price breaks through a key support area, a deeper correction is worth wary of. Overall, I still believe the main trend in USD/CHF remains bullish. However, in the short term, there appears to be a decrease in buying momentum, potentially triggering a correction phase first. Therefore, my trading plan is to look for sell opportunities if the price breaks through and maintains below the 0.805 level. Conversely, I will reconsider buying opportunities if the price manages to move above 0.810, with additional confirmation from the MACD breaking back above the signal line. Therefore, entry decisions will still follow the direction of price movement and indicator confirmation to increase the probability of taking opportunities. Thank you for sharing your analysis, Sis. This is only my perspective from a technical perspective. I hope it can provide additional reference material and discussion material. I am also very open to other perspectives that might complement this analysis.
