AUD/USD H1 Timeframe: Based on the AUD/USD chart on the H1 timeframe, the price movement structure still shows a bullish trend, despite a consolidation phase in the last few sessions following a fairly strong rally. This is reflected in the price position, which remains above the 100 Moving Average (MA100) and 200 Moving Average (MA200). Furthermore, the MA100 has moved above the MA200, with both indicators still pointing upwards. This condition indicates that the medium-term trend is still dominated by buyers, while the weakening in the last few hours reflects profit-taking rather than an overall trend change. The previous price movement showed upward momentum, starting from the 0.6913 area and peaking around 0.7015. After reaching this level, selling pressure began to increase, causing the price to correct towards the MA100 area. Interestingly, however, this correction was unable to push the price down to break through the MA200. Conversely, the price managed to hold around the 100-period moving average (MA100) and began to move sideways, indicating that the 100-period moving average is now serving as a dynamic support area. As long as the price remains above the 100-period moving average (MA100), the opportunity for buyers to regain control of the market remains relatively high. The 100-period moving average (MA100), which is currently around 0.6972, serves as a key reference for short-term market participants. The price has tested this area several times and always received a buying response, resulting in an upward bounce. This indicates that market participants still view any weakness towards the 100-period moving average (MA100) as an opportunity to re-accumulate long positions. Meanwhile, the 200-period moving average (MA200), which is around 0.6955, provides a stronger layer of support. The widening distance between the 100-period moving average (MA100) and the 200-period moving average (MA200), also reflects the continued soundness of the uptrend. As long as both moving averages maintain their bullish configuration, the probability of continued upside is still higher than the potential for a bearish reversal.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, the 0.6978 to 0.6980 area is the closest support level currently being tested by the price. This level was previously a resistance level that was successfully broken through and has now become a support level. As long as the price can hold above this level, the bullish momentum is still likely to continue. The next support level is around 0.6938, which was a consolidation area before the major price surge a few days earlier. If selling pressure intensifies and breaks through this level, the market focus will shift to the next support level around 0.6913. This area is quite important horizontal support because it has several times been a turning point for price increases at the start of an uptrend. As long as the price remains above this level, the overall bullish structure remains intact. On the upside, the first resistance level is around 0.7009. This level served as a distribution area when the price failed to continue rising after a sharp rally. A convincing break above this resistance level would open the door for the price to retest the previous peak around 0.7020 to 0.7021. If buying pressure pushes the price through this area with strong volume, the chances of a new bullish leg will increase, potentially pushing AUD/USD towards the next psychological level above 0.7030. It's worth noting that the price is currently moving in a narrow consolidation phase just above the 100-day moving average (MA100). This phase often determines the next direction. If buyers successfully defend the support area and breakout above minor resistance, the uptrend could potentially resume. Conversely, if the price begins to consistently close below the 100-day moving average (MA100) and then breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA200), this would be an early signal that bullish momentum is losing steam and the market could potentially enter a deeper correction phase. Judging by the candlestick characteristics of the last few sessions, selling pressure appears to be easing compared to when the correction first occurred from the 0.7015 area. The smaller candlestick bodies indicate a balance is forming between buyers and sellers. This situation often indicates that the market is awaiting a new catalyst before determining its next direction. With the MA100 still above the MA200 and the price remaining above both indicators, the technical bias is currently leaning more bullish. Overall, the technical outlook for AUD/USD on the H1 timeframe remains positive as long as the price maintains its position above the 100-day moving average (MA100) and especially above the 200-day moving average (MA200). Support areas at 0.6978, 0.6938, and 0.6913 are important zones for buyers to defend, while resistance levels at 0.7009 and 0.7020 are targets that must be broken to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. As long as there is no strong break below the 200-day moving average (MA200), any correction can still be viewed as a retracement within the larger bullish trend, thus opening the door to further upside towards the next resistance levels.
