FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forecast (H4): Euro Maintains Bullish Structure While Markets Await Fresh Macro Catalysts EUR/USD is trading near 1.1526 on the H4 timeframe, holding above key short-term support as traders assess the latest developments in monetary policy and macroeconomic data. The pair continues to reflect the balance between a relatively resilient Eurozone economy and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The European Central Bank has adopted a cautious, data-dependent stance after moderating inflation pressures, while emphasizing that future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic indicators rather than a preset easing path. In the United States, the Federal Reserve recently left interest rates unchanged but maintained a hawkish tone, with policymakers signaling that inflation risks remain elevated and that additional tightening cannot be ruled out if economic conditions warrant it. Strong labor market resilience and stable consumer demand continue to provide underlying support for the U.S. Dollar, although softer Treasury yields have limited broader dollar strength. Investors are now closely watching upcoming high-impact releases, including Eurozone Services PMI, German Retail Sales, ECB communications, U.S. ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, and upcoming labor-market data, all of which could significantly influence short-term price action. Despite these event risks, overall market sentiment remains moderately bullish for EUR/USD as expectations of limited policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed continue to support demand for the euro while risk appetite remains broadly constructive.

Moving Averages continue to support the prevailing trend, as shorter-term averages remain comfortably above longer-term averages with an upward slope, confirming that buyers retain control of the medium-term structure. Immediate support and resistance levels will determine the next directional move. Holding above 1.1490 could encourage another test of 1.1555, followed by 1.1600, while a break below support may expose 1.1450 before stronger buying interest re-emerges. As long as the Alligator maintains its bullish alignment and moving averages continue pointing higher, the overall H4 outlook favors buying on pullbacks rather than chasing weakness. However, traders should remain disciplined ahead of this week's major macroeconomic releases, as elevated event-driven volatility may trigger sharp intraday swings despite the broader bullish trend. Key Levels & Takeaways: Key Support Levels (assumed): 1.1490, 1.1450, 1.1415 Key Resistance Levels (assumed): 1.1555, 1.1600, 1.1650 Trend Direction: Bullish Indicator Summary: The Alligator Indicator remains positively aligned, Bollinger Bands suggest expanding but controlled bullish volatility, and Moving Averages continue to favor upside momentum, reinforcing a constructive H4 outlook for EUR/USD.