USD/JPY H4 Timeframe: Based on the USD/JPY H4 timeframe chart, the current price structure indicates a significant trend change compared to the previous period. The movement, which in mid-to-late July had formed a bullish trend, with the price moving above the blue 100-day moving average (MA) and the red 200-day moving average (MA), then experienced very strong selling pressure at the end of July. This decline caused the price to fall from the 163.30–163.99 area to the 156.00s in a relatively short time. After reaching this low, USD/JPY began a recovery phase or technical rebound, but to date, the increase has not been able to return the price above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This condition is a crucial factor in determining the technical bias for the next movement. Prior to the sharp decline, USD/JPY appeared to maintain a bullish structure. The price moved above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages several times, while both moving averages sloped upward. The 163.99 area served as the main horizontal resistance because it was near the peak of the price movement before the major correction. Below lies resistance at 162.97, which was previously a key area during the bullish trend. The price consolidated around 162.97 before continuing its upward movement towards 163.99. However, the failure to maintain momentum at the peak was followed by a very aggressive structural change. The most significant change was seen in the sharp decline around the end of July. The price broke through several support levels simultaneously and then fell below the 100- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, the 100-day moving average, which had previously been above the 200-day moving average, then reversed sharply downward. Currently, the 100-day moving average is around 160.20–160.30, while the 200-day moving average is higher, around 160.70–160.90. This condition indicates that the medium-term momentum has shifted to bearish. The price's position below both moving averages further strengthens this pressure. Furthermore, the 100-day moving average has moved downward and is beginning to move below the 200-day moving average, so the current moving average structure favors a bearish scenario over a bullish one.
Nevertheless, the price movement after reaching the 156.66 area indicated a buyer response. The 156.66 level represents a significant horizontal support level on the chart, as it served as a point capable of halting a sharp decline. From there, the price began to form a series of gradual increases. After consolidating around 157.30–158.00, USD/JPY then managed to rise to 158.59 and then moved closer to 159.54. This structure suggests that buyers are regaining some control in the short term. However, this increase is still more accurately categorized as a rebound as long as the price fails to break through the resistance and key moving averages. Currently, 159.54 is the closest, crucial resistance level. The last price was around 159.06, so only a small bullish push is needed to test that level. If the H4 candlestick manages to break through 159.54 with a strong close and then maintains that level as new support, the opportunity for an increase towards the 160.20–160.30 area will be even greater. This area is also close to the 100-day moving average (MA), so renewed selling pressure is highly likely. If the price manages to break through the 100-day moving average (MA), the next focus will be on the 200-day moving average (MA) around 160.70–160.90. A breakout of the 200-day moving average (MA) would be a much more constructive signal for buyers, indicating that the rebound is starting to develop into a trend recovery. However, if the price remains below 159.54, selling pressure could still emerge. The nearest support level is at 158.59, which currently represents a key barrier for a short-term rebound. As long as the price remains above 158.59, the recovery structure from 156.66 can be maintained. Conversely, if the H4 close clearly falls below 158.59, the short-term bullish momentum could weaken, and the price could retest the 157.30 to 156.66 area. The 156.66 level is crucial support as it formed the basis for the most recent rebound. If this support is breached again, bearish pressure could potentially intensify and open the way to the next support level at 155.22. From a price action perspective, the sharp decline in late July created an undeniable shift in market character. Previously, buyers were able to maintain higher highs and higher lows, but after the major decline, this structure broke down. The recovery since the 156.66 area has produced higher lows and higher highs in the short term, but it hasn't been enough to change the main trend. The price remains below the 100- and 200-day moving averages, so any rise towards the moving average area has the potential to become a distribution zone if not accompanied by strong volume and momentum. The 161.62 resistance level also warrants attention if USD/JPY manages to break through the 200-day moving average (MA). This horizontal resistance level has previously served as a price reaction area. A breakout of 161.62 would significantly improve the technical structure and potentially push the price back towards 162.97. Meanwhile, the 162.97 resistance level is the next important barrier before the market can retest 163.99. Therefore, to shift the bearish bias to a more convincing bullish level, USD/JPY must not simply break through 159.54; it must ideally break through the 100-day moving average (MA), the 200-day moving average (MA), and then 161.62, with confirmation from the hourly candle. Conversely, as long as the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA), a more conservative strategy is to treat the current uptrend as a technical rebound within a bearish trend. The 159.54 area serves as the initial confirmation level. A strong rejection from this area could indicate seller activity has resumed, while a valid breakout above it opens up room for further recovery. Movement between 158.59 and 159.54 also has the potential to result in consolidation before the market determines its next direction.
