GOLD Timeframe M15: Based on the GOLD chart on the M15 timeframe, the current price movement still shows a strong short-term bullish structure, although a sharp correction was observed at the end of the chart after the price reached the resistance area of 4,434.15. The latest price was around 4,370.11, right in the area of the 100-day moving average (MA) in blue. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) in red is still well below the price, around the 4,340-4,345 area. This condition indicates that the main trend on the M15 chart remains positive, but the very short-term bullish momentum is under pressure after a fairly aggressive increase. Looking at the overall price structure, GOLD previously experienced an accumulation phase around 4,240-4,260, then began to form a gradual increase. The price managed to break through several horizontal resistance levels and moved higher until it reached the 4,300 area, then 4,315, and then entered a consolidation phase around 4,330-4,370. After the consolidation, buyers regained momentum and pushed the price through the 4,393.28 area, eventually peaking around 4,434.15. This increase clearly demonstrated buyer dominance, as the price formed a series of gradually higher highs and higher lows. From the perspective of the 100-day moving average (MA100), the blue line appears to have been consistently moving upward since the beginning of the chart. This indicates that the average price in the medium term on the M15 timeframe continues to rise. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA15), the bullish trend remains technically sound. However, recent conditions indicate that the price has experienced a sharp decline from the 4,410s to around 4,370 and is now testing the 100-day moving average (MA100). This test is crucial because the 100-day moving average (MA100) has the potential to act as dynamic support.
If the price is able to stay above the 100-day moving average (MA100) and form a bullish rejection candle around 4,370, the chances of a technical rebound increase. Under these conditions, the ongoing correction can be considered a healthy pullback after a prolonged rally. Conversely, if GOLD breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA) with a strong 15-day moving average (MA) candle and maintains below it, the short-term bullish momentum will begin to lose strength. A drop below the 100-day moving average (MA) doesn't automatically turn the trend bearish, as the 200-day moving average (MA) remains well below the price, but it could open the door to a deeper correction. The red 200-day moving average (MA) is an important indicator for determining the broader trend structure on the chart. The 200-day moving average (MA) is currently around 4,340 and is still moving upward. The considerable distance between the price and the 200-day moving average (MA) indicates that GOLD still has an overall bullish structure. The 100-day moving average (MA) is also well above the 200-day moving average (MA), so the configuration of both moving averages still favors buyers. As long as the 100-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) doesn't experience a significant reversal, the primary bias remains bullish. In terms of horizontal resistance, 4,393.28 is a crucial first level. Previously, the price broke through this area and continued its rise towards a peak of 4,434.15. With the current sharp correction, 4,393.28 has the potential to become resistance if the price rises again. If GOLD can reclaim 4,393.28 and then hold above it, it would indicate that buyers have successfully regained control after the correction. The next major resistance level is at 4,434.15. This level is the highest peak on the chart and serves as a key barrier for the continuation of the bullish trend. If the price successfully breaks through 4,434.15, the bullish structure will receive stronger confirmation as GOLD creates a new high. However, this area also has the potential to become a significant profit-taking zone, as the price previously experienced rejection after reaching this area. Therefore, a breakout of the 4,434.15 resistance level should not be judged solely on momentary movement, but requires confirmation through the closing candle and the price's ability to maintain the breakout level. On the downside, the closest support to the current price is the 4,370.11 area, which is also adjacent to the 100-day moving average (MA). This area is crucial because it combines dynamic support and a horizontal level that is being tested. If buyers are able to maintain this zone, the price could potentially return to 4,393.28. However, if selling pressure continues and the price breaks through 4,370 convincingly, the correction could continue towards the 4,315.79 area. The 4,315.79 level represents significant horizontal support on the chart. Previously, this area has served as a price reaction point several times and formed the basis for a consolidation phase before the next rally. If the correction from 4,434 deepens, 4,315.79 will be a key area to gauge buyer strength. As long as the price remains above this level, the overall bullish structure has not been seriously damaged. In fact, a decline towards this area could be a relatively normal retracement after a major rally. The next support level is located around 4,282.35. This level previously served as resistance, but was successfully broken when GOLD continued its uptrend. In the concept of changing levels, this area has the potential to become support if the price experiences a deeper correction. A breakout of 4,282.35 would indicate that the correction is starting to expand and buyers are losing control of the short-term price structure. Further below are 4,246.26 and 4,223.44. These two levels are important support levels seen at the beginning of the chart. The 4,246.26 area in particular serves as a consolidation zone before the price begins to experience bullish acceleration. As long as GOLD remains well above these two levels, the bullish trend in the chart structure cannot be considered broken. However, if the price breaks through 4,223.44, the upward structure that has been forming since the beginning of the observation period will undergo a significant change. The price action in the last section of the chart provides a signal worth paying attention to. After an aggressive upward movement from around 4,390 to 4,434, the price formed a peak and then experienced a decline for several consecutive candles. This decline indicates that sellers are starting to take profits and exert pressure on the price. However, as long as the correction stops around the 100-day moving average (MA), this situation can still be considered a pullback within a bullish trend. Subsequent confirmation depends heavily on the price's response to the 100-day moving average (MA). If a bullish rejection occurs around 4,370, an attractive scenario is for the price to move back towards 4,393.28. A breakout of this level could open the way to 4,434.15. Conversely, if the price fails to hold the 100-day moving average (MA), a correction towards 4,315.79 is more likely. This area then becomes a key point to determine whether buyers are still able to maintain the higher low structure. It's also worth noting that the M15 timeframe is characterized by faster movement and produces more noise than the H1 or H4 timeframes. Therefore, a breakout of support or resistance should not be judged solely on a single candle. Confirmation through multiple candlesticks, level retests, and the price's ability to maintain the breakout area will provide a more robust signal. In GOLD's highly volatile environment, false breakouts can also occur quickly. Overall, the technical structure still favors buyers. The 100-day moving average (MA) is above the 200-day moving average (MA), both trending upward, and the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA). This indicates that the primary trend has not yet turned bearish. The correction from 4,434.15 to 4,370.11 is more appropriately viewed as a retracement phase as long as the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 4,370-day moving average (MA) remain in place. However, if these two areas are broken, attention should shift to 4,315.79 as the next support level.
