FX.co ★ EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair edged lower during early trading session, fully reversing its initial intraday gains as the US Dollar (USD) demonstrated impressive underlying resilience and brushed off in-line US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. At the time of writing, the major pair fluctuates near the 1.1521 mark, having retreated noticeably from its session peak of 1.1563. In the immediate aftermath of the official macroeconomic release, the Greenback experienced swift selling pressure as headline and core CPI decelerated on an annual basis to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. These figures initially encouraged market participants to scale back speculative bets regarding future Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increases, triggering a temporary soft patch for the dollar. However, this dovish market reaction proved short-lived as the Greenback aggressively pared its initial losses throughout the European and North American sessions. Institutional investors quickly refocused on persistent upside inflation risks driven by elevated global energy prices, recognizing that sustained energy commodity volatility could prevent consumer price growth from fully cooling to target levels. Compounding these monetary policy concerns, limited prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution to the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East—alongside unresolved negotiations regarding the unbinding and reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route—continued to bolster baseline safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck's value against a curated basket of six rival currencies, rebounded sharply from its intraday swing low of 99.61 to trade within striking distance of the key 100.00 psychological threshold. This strong intraday turnaround in the US Dollar exerted direct downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, dragging spot prices back toward the lower boundary of its recent trading range following multiple failed attempts to breach overhead dynamic resistance. From a technical chart perspective, the daily timeframe reveals that EUR/USD retains a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias despite the intraday pullback. The exchange rate continues to defend structural support above the crucial 1.1500 psychological handle as well as its upward-sloping 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently sits at 1.1466. Momentum indicators present a similarly balanced outlook: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 56 to reflect moderate bullish control, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to trade in positive territory above its zero signal line. Nevertheless, the steadily shrinking positive histogram bars on the MACD warn of fading upside momentum, while an Average Directional Index (ADX) reading in the high 20s signifies only moderate trend strength rather than a runaway directional impulse. Regarding key technical price levels, initial overhead resistance is firmly defined by the 100-day SMA located at 1.1567, a level that has repeatedly rejected bullish breakout attempts in recent sessions. A decisive daily close above this 100-day SMA barrier would be required to shift medium-term control back to EUR/USD bulls, opening the door for a extended recovery effort toward the 200-day SMA around the 1.1630 region. Conversely, immediate downside protection is provided by the horizontal 1.1500 psychological pivot line, closely followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1466. A sustained bearish breakdown beneath this confluence support zone would effectively dismantle the pair's tentative positive structure, exposing EUR/USD to a deeper corrective retreat toward secondary support targets.