NZD/USD Daily Timeframe: Based on the NZD/USD daily chart, the current price movement shows a quite interesting structural change after the currency pair experienced a prolonged decline, consolidation, and then a gradual recovery. The latest price is around 0.59575, with the latest candle appearing to successfully move upward and test the resistance area around 0.5945–0.5955. This position is important because the price is currently in an area that has previously generated several reactions, so the closing direction of the next daily candle will significantly determine whether NZD/USD can continue its bullish phase or experience another correction. Overall, the chart structure is starting to show a bullish trend, but the price still faces several key resistance levels. From the perspective of the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), the NZD/USD technical structure appears increasingly constructive. On the chart, the blue 100-day moving average (MA) is located around 0.583–0.584, while the red 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly higher, around 0.584–0.585. The current price position, well above both moving averages, indicates a significant improvement in medium-term momentum. More importantly, after previously being below both moving averages, the price has now broken through and maintained above them. This indicates that the 100- and 200-day moving averages have shifted from dynamic resistance to potential support areas. This change is quite evident in the price structure since mid-year. The NZD/USD pair experienced intense pressure, reaching the 0.5600–0.5650 area in June, but then experienced a fairly aggressive reversal. The price began forming higher lows and higher highs, then moved back towards the 100- and 200-day moving averages. After successfully breaking through both indicators, the price continued to rise towards the 0.5900 area. Technically, this pattern typically indicates that selling pressure is losing its dominance and buyers are taking control. External technical data available in mid-August also shows that the 100- and 200-day moving averages are below the price, thus still providing support for the medium-term bullish structure. However, it's important to note that the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) on the chart don't yet show a strong bullish slope. Both lines remain relatively flat and close together. This means that even though the price has reached above them, the market hasn't fully entered a strong uptrend. This condition is more accurately interpreted as a bullish recovery within a structure that still requires confirmation. If the price is able to maintain its position above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) for several daily sessions, the probability of a more solid bullish trend forming increases.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, the first crucial area is 0.5945–0.5955. The chart shows the blue horizontal line around 0.59449, while the level around 0.59575 represents the last price level. This area represents the closest resistance currently being tested. The price has previously experienced several rejections around this area, so a daily candle closing strongly above 0.5955 would be a positive signal. If this breakout occurs with good momentum, the market has the potential to move towards the next resistance level. The next resistance level is around 0.6013–0.6015, clearly visible through the green horizontal line on the chart. This level is a crucial barrier because it is close to the psychological 0.6000 level. Technically, 0.6000 is a round number that often acts as a price magnet and a profit-taking area. If NZD/USD manages to break through 0.5955 and then surpass 0.6000, the next focus could be on 0.6013–0.6015. A valid breakout above this area would provide stronger confirmation that the recovery trend has developed into a bullish continuation. Above 0.6015, the next resistance levels are around 0.6060–0.6065, followed by 0.6090–0.6095. The 0.6092 level, seen at the top of the chart, is crucial as it is close to the previous price peak. If the price reaches this area, NZD/USD will retest the highs formed at the beginning of the year. Therefore, the bullish path from 0.5955 to 0.6090 will not be without obstacles, but any breakout of resistance can provide further confirmation of buyer strength. Meanwhile, in terms of support, the first area to watch is 0.5890–0.5900. The 0.5900 level has both psychological and technical significance, as the price has moved around it several times. If the price corrects after testing 0.5955, the 0.5900 area's ability to withstand the decline will be a key indicator. As long as the price remains above 0.5900, the higher lows structure on the daily chart remains relatively intact. The next support level is located around 0.5840–0.5860, which is also close to the 100- and 200-day moving averages. This is one of the most important support areas in the current structure. The confluence of the moving averages and horizontal support makes this area technically more significant than regular support. If a pullback occurs and the price receives a bullish rejection from this area, this could actually be an opportunity to resume the uptrend. Conversely, if the price breaks through the 100- and 200-day moving averages convincingly, especially if it closes below 0.5830–0.5840, the medium-term bullish momentum will begin to weaken. The next stronger horizontal support lies around 0.5760–0.5761. The green line on the chart indicates that this level has previously been a price reaction area. If a deeper correction occurs and the price fails to hold around the 100-day moving average (MA)/200-day moving average (MA), the 0.5760 level could become the next stronghold for buyers. A breakout of this level would indicate that the bullish reversal that has been in place since June is losing steam. Further down lies support around 0.5670–0.5675, followed by the 0.5595–0.5600 area. The 0.5595 area is one of the lowest points visible in the chart structure. As long as the price remains well above this area, the medium-term recovery structure can be considered intact. However, if the price breaks through 0.5670 again, bearish pressure will increase significantly, and the bullish scenario established since June will need to be re-evaluated. Recent price action signals are quite positive. After forming a base around 0.5650, NZD/USD gradually formed a series of higher lows and higher highs. The price then managed to break through the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) and move towards the 0.5900 area. The consolidation phase that occurred around 0.5850–0.5900 was eventually followed by a rally towards 0.5950. This structure indicates increased buying interest. However, the last candle also shows that the price is entering a resistance area, so the potential for rejection must still be considered. From a strategic perspective, the current conditions are less than ideal for aggressively pursuing the price just below the 0.5955 resistance, as the risk-reward could become less attractive. A more technically sound scenario is to wait for confirmation of a breakout above 0.5955 and then see if that level can turn into support. If successful, the next target is around 0.6000–0.6015, with the possibility of further upside towards 0.6060 and 0.6090 if bullish momentum remains strong. Another alternative is to wait for a correction towards 0.5900 or even the 100-200-day moving average (MA) area around 0.5840–0.5860 and watch for a bullish rejection. It's worth noting that external technical analysis in August showed a fairly rapid shift in sentiment. In early August, NZD/USD had a very bullish signal, with the 100- and 200-day moving averages well below the price, but some technical readings in mid-August turned bearish as the price corrected. This suggests that the pair remains volatile and sensitive to breakouts or rejections. Therefore, horizontal levels on user charts remain a key reference point, providing direct context for the ongoing price structure.
