Gold extended its upward momentum into Monday's Asian session, climbing to three-month highs above $4,650 as the US dollar came under sustained pressure from a confluence of negative factors. The precious metal continues to benefit from diminished safe-haven demand for the greenback, as markets grow increasingly skeptical about the US economic outlook following the recent surge in Treasury yields and the Treasury Department's commitment to ramp up buybacks of long-term bonds. That fiscal policy move has raised questions about the sustainability of US debt, undermining one of the dollar's traditional pillars of support. Meanwhile, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have continued to fade following a string of disappointing US economic data. That dovish repricing has further undermined the dollar's yield advantage, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors. Gold is also experiencing a revival of its traditional safe-haven role, even as tensions between the US and Iran persist. Washington has threatened Tehran with what it calls "the largest financial attack ever mobilized," preparing to impose economic sanctions targeting Iran's trading partners. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the threat as a sign of desperation, insisting that the expected new measures would not defeat Tehran. That geopolitical standoff continues to underpin gold's appeal. Looking ahead, gold's next upward push will likely depend on the US core PCE index for July and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at this week's Jackson Hole symposium. Deutsche Bank described the event as the most important economic event of the week, with investors closely watching Warsh's Friday address. The bank also noted that Wednesday's PCE report, along with personal income, expenditure, and durable goods orders, will be key data points. For now, geopolitics and dollar dynamics remain the primary drivers for gold.
Gold is currently trading near $4,650, holding well above all key moving averages across both timeframes, a clear sign that the bulls remain firmly in control. On the hourly chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $4,550 while the 200-period SMA is positioned lower at $4,430, meaning price is trading roughly $100 above the 50 SMA and about $220 above the 200 SMA. That's a strongly bullish setup on the short-term horizon, with the 50 SMA above the 200 SMA forming a golden cross that signals upward momentum is intact and accelerating. The gap between the two hourly averages is about $120 and widening rapidly, suggesting that the current uptrend is gaining significant strength. The fact that both averages are sloping sharply upward reinforces the positive short-term picture. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the outlook remains equally constructive. The 50 SMA sits at $4,442 while the 200 SMA is positioned lower at $4,190, meaning price is trading roughly $208 above the 50 SMA and about $460 above the 200 SMA. That's an extremely bullish configuration on the intermediate timeframe, with the H4 50 SMA above the H4 200 SMA confirming that the broader trend is firmly to the upside. The gap between the two H4 averages is about $252 and widening, suggesting the uptrend is well established and gaining significant traction. This alignment across timeframes, with price well above all key SMAs and the shorter averages above the longer ones, paints a picture of a market that is in a strong bull run. Now let's look at the horizontal levels that exist independently of the moving averages. On the resistance side, the first hurdle is $4,680, Monday's high, which has proven to be a sticking point. Above that, the next supply zone runs from $4,700 to $4,720, followed by a heavier barrier at $4,750. If buyers manage to clear all of that, the next targets are $4,780 and then $4,800. On the support side, the first floor is at $4,620, which aligns with the recent breakout level and adds extra weight to this zone. A break below that opens the door to $4,590, then $4,560, which aligns with the hourly 50 SMA, making it a confluent support zone where buyers are likely to step in. Further down, the next cushions are at $4,530 and then $4,500, which marks a deeper demand zone from early July.
