Gold Daily Forecast At the start of the European session today, the gold price is trending toward its new intraday low near $ 4625.But the decline appears to remain moderate. In anticipation of the US PCE Price Index release, the US Dollar is rising positively. According to many market participants, it is negatively affecting gold prices because of their inverse correlation. Furthermore, both US inflation numbers and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday can provide valuable insight regarding the future path of interest rates. This means that it will influence USD performance and, in turn, its impact on gold. Meanwhile, there have been expectations of a pause at the September 15-16 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, as inflationary pressures begin to cool alongside weakening labor market conditions. Moreover, the US Treasury's buyback strategy contributes to another decline in US Treasury yields. Notably, according to two top Treasury officials, the US Treasury may use nearly $1 trillion from its General Account balance to finance the purchase program under its newly announced plan to buy more longer-dated bonds. In fact, good news regarding the Middle East crisis puts pressure on crude oil prices, thereby alleviating inflation worries and contributing to another dip in US bond yields. As a result, the move limits any potential rally for the USD, helping gold prices advance further. In today's trading session, crude oil prices declined to nearly a two-week low, driven by the developments surrounding Iran. The nation announced on Tuesday that it had resumed negotiations with Oman to ensure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. They mentioned that both parties explored options for creating a joint, temporary navigational corridor through the strategically important waterway. Furthermore, the United States proposed lifting the economic sanctions on Iran alongside the cancellation of its maritime blockade on the condition that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz and stops its proxy forces from launching attacks. These diplomatic moves reignited hopes for resolving the ongoing war between Washington and Tehran, hurting the USD significantly and supporting gold prices. On the daily chart, the price is trading at 4617. The price is still trading above the significant hurdle at $4500. By hovering above the 4500 level, which comprises the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from March-June, it acted as a catalyst for bulls in XAU/USD. Indeed, the bulls are hesitant and struggling to accept levels beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Hence, it might be appropriate to hold patience until we see signs of continuation past the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (14) is close to the overbought level of 72. This means that robust upward momentum persists in gold. But consolidation above the 4500 level cannot be completely ruled out in the coming days. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (12, 26, 9) continues to print above zero levels. However, the buyers might need more significant strength to retest resistance beyond $4,700. Breaking above the specified hurdle will pave the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 4,856. The 78.6% retracement at 5,104 and the peak zone around 5,421 would be the ultimate gold for buyers. From a seller's perspective, breaking below the mentioned handle suggests the bulls may face resistance. The initial support comes from the 200-day SMA at 4,522 and the close-by 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at 4,508. Further correction moves can be expected toward the 23.6% retracement at 4,290. If the USDX gain strengthn, then we can see some long-term selling pressure in gold again. In this scenario, 4000 would be the main gateway for sellers to breach. Once the seller succeeds in bypassing this barricade, the next highlighted barrier would be 3900.
