FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Market Analysis and Insights: Bitcoin has shifted into a short-term corrective phase after briefly pushing above $81,000 earlier in the week. The latest price action around $77,811 reflects a sharp rejection from the $80,000–$81,500 resistance region, with the decline accelerating after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole comments revived expectations for a September U.S. rate hike. Bitcoin fell roughly 3% during the latest selloff, while the broader crypto market also weakened. Nevertheless, institutional demand remains supportive: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.9 billion of inflows in the week through August 21. Short-term bias: cautiously bearish below $80,000, while the medium-term structure remains bullish above $75,000. Fundamental Analysis: Bitcoin's fundamental environment remains divided between strong institutional adoption and a less supportive global liquidity backdrop. The strongest bullish factor is continuing institutional participation through regulated investment products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.9 billion during the week ending August 21, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. This indicates that large investors were willing to increase Bitcoin exposure even after the asset had already rallied strongly. Regulatory developments have also improved the broader crypto investment environment, while recent U.S. policy developments have encouraged expectations of a clearer legal framework for digital assets. These factors can create persistent structural demand because institutional investors can now obtain Bitcoin exposure through familiar regulated vehicles rather than relying exclusively on direct exchange ownership. Bitcoin is also benefiting from its increasing role as an alternative macro asset alongside equities, gold, and other scarce assets. However, the recent rally has produced elevated positioning and valuation risk. Bitcoin's move from the mid-$60,000s toward $81,000 in a relatively short period has encouraged momentum traders and leveraged participants to enter long positions. As a result, even modest changes in liquidity or interest-rate expectations can trigger larger-than-normal corrections. The market is therefore fundamentally constructive, but the current price is increasingly dependent on whether institutional inflows remain strong enough to absorb profit-taking and leveraged liquidation. The most important macroeconomic headwind is the Federal Reserve. U.S. inflation remains above the central bank's 2% objective, while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently indicated that policymakers still have significant work to do unless inflation clearly moves toward target. His Jackson Hole comments caused markets to increase the probability of a September rate hike from roughly 35% to around 56–60%, while the U.S. two-year Treasury yield jumped by about 13 basis points to approximately 4.36%. Higher interest rates and rising Treasury yields are generally negative for Bitcoin because they increase the attractiveness of traditional yield-bearing assets and reduce excess liquidity available for risk assets. The stronger U.S. dollar following Warsh's comments created an additional headwind, contributing to Bitcoin's decline below $78,000. Nevertheless, the Fed's hawkish shift does not automatically imply a prolonged Bitcoin bear market. If future U.S. employment data weaken or inflation begins falling faster than expected, markets could quickly reverse the recent rate-hike repricing. Lower yields and a softer dollar would then create a much more favorable environment for Bitcoin. Global liquidity, fiscal concerns and investor demand for assets viewed as alternatives to traditional currencies also remain longer-term bullish factors. The key fundamental conflict is therefore between institutional Bitcoin accumulation and restrictive U.S. monetary policy. For the next several weeks, Fed expectations and ETF flows are likely to be more important than traditional cryptocurrency-specific narratives. D1 Chart Technical Analysis – Indicators, Momentum and Volatility Pure price action has weakened considerably after Bitcoin failed to establish a sustained breakout above $81,000–$81,500. The market climbed strongly through August and briefly traded above $81,000 before reversing sharply following the latest Federal Reserve communication. Bitcoin is now around $77,811, placing it between immediate support near $77,000–$75,870 and resistance around $80,000–$81,500. Recent technical analysis identifies $77,000 as the key near-term level: holding it would keep the latest decline within the boundaries of a normal correction, while a decisive break could expose the mid-$75,000s. A recovery above $80,000 would improve the structure and reopen the path toward $81,500, followed by $83,000–$85,000. A daily close above $81,500 would be particularly important because it would confirm that buyers have absorbed the supply responsible for the recent rejection. Conversely, a daily close below $75,870 would shift control toward sellers and increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward $74,000–$72,900. The recent bearish rejection candle around $81,000 is therefore significant, but it has not yet destroyed the broader recovery structure. The key question is whether buyers can defend $75,000–$77,000 before the correction develops into a larger trend reversal.

A current technical snapshot places RSI(14) around 70, indicating that momentum remains strong but is approaching overbought territory. Stochastic is also above 80, producing a short-term sell signal, while MACD remains strongly positive, with the latest reading around 3,961 and the signal line near 3,256. This combination suggests that the broader upward momentum has not disappeared, but the market has become vulnerable to profit-taking. ATR(14) is approximately $2,254, illustrating the unusually large daily price swings currently possible. Moving averages remain firmly bullish: the 20-day SMA is around $71,012, the 50-day around $67,021, the 100-day around $66,223, and the 200-day around $69,331. Bitcoin therefore remains substantially above its major trend averages. Another current technical assessment places the 20-day EMA near $72,894, the 50-day EMA around $68,920, and the 200-day EMA around $71,872, again confirming that the larger trend remains positive. The important technical warning is positioning: the latest data show a long-heavy market, with approximately 54% of accounts long and the broader Fear & Greed reading around 68, or "Greed." This means a break below $77,000 could trigger accelerated long liquidation. On the bullish side, a strong daily candle reclaiming $80,000 with expanding volume would show that buyers have regained control. The immediate technical balance is therefore neutral-to-bullish above $75,000 but bearish in the short term while below $80,000.