Crude oil snapped a four-day winning streak on Friday, easing to near $102.65 a barrel as traders booked profits following a steep rally. However, the pullback may prove short-lived, with the escalating US-Iran conflict continuing to fuel concerns about prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies. Senior US officials have reportedly warned President Trump that the war could drag on for the remainder of his term, extending into January 2029, underscoring the lack of a clear exit strategy. On the Iranian side, leaders appear determined to keep fighting despite mounting economic costs, viewing the conflict as an existential threat. Tehran also claims it has rebuilt its missile capabilities and could intensify attacks on US and Gulf assets if Washington escalates further. Hostilities have intensified over the past two weeks, with the US targeting Iranian tankers while Iran launches missiles at US warships, commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, and American assets in neighboring countries. In a significant development, the BBC reported that Yemen's Houthis have seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha from Saudi-backed government forces, citing military sources and witnesses. That gain places the Iranian-backed group just 75 kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to key trade routes linking Asia and Europe. The Houthis insist they pose no threat to international shipping, but reiterated that Saudi Arabian vessels remain legitimate targets. Since the US-Israel war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has grown increasingly reliant on the Red Sea for its oil exports, making the Houthi advance a serious concern for global supply chains. BNY strategists noted that President Trump continues to justify the economic fallout from the Iran conflict by tying it directly to nonproliferation goals, describing higher fuel prices as the necessary cost of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon while repeating his belief that oil prices will fall once the war ends.
Crude oil is currently trading near $102.65, holding well above all key moving averages across both timeframes, a clear indication that bullish momentum remains firmly intact despite Friday's pause. On the hourly chart, the 50-period moving average sits at $98.00, while the 200-period moving average rests at $92.70. Price is trading comfortably above both averages, signaling that near-term momentum remains firmly in favor of buyers. The fact that price has held well above these levels suggests that sellers have been unable to gain any meaningful traction, and any pullback toward these averages could attract fresh buying interest. The 50-period average is now acting as immediate support, while the 200-period average provides a deeper safety net well beneath current levels. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the 50-period moving average resides at $93.00, while the 200-period moving average rests at $85.00. Price is trading well above both averages, confirming that the broader trend remains decisively to the upside. The widening separation between price and these averages suggests that the current rally has gathered extraordinary momentum, though it also raises the possibility of a short-term consolidation or pullback to relieve overbought conditions. Resistance is spotted at $104.00, a psychologically significant level that aligns with the session's peak and has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Above that, the next supply band stretches from $105.50 to $106.00, followed by a heavier barrier at $107.50. If buyers manage to push through these levels, the market could advance toward $109.00 and $110.50. On the downside, the first support floor sits at $100.50, a level that has provided a cushion during recent pullbacks. Losing that footing would open the door to $98.00, which aligns with the hourly 50-period moving average and represents a key support zone. Further down, $95.50 and $93.00 represent deeper demand pockets, with the latter aligning with the four-hour 50-period moving average and offering a more substantial safety net. Looking ahead, if crude can hold above $100.50 and maintain its position above the moving averages, buyers may push the market toward $104.00 and beyond. However, if selling pressure intensifies and price breaks below $100.50, a deeper pullback toward $98.00 and $95.50 becomes increasingly likely. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above the four-hour 200-period moving average at $85.00, but near-term direction will depend on whether buyers can defend current support levels and how markets digest ongoing geopolitical developments.
