EUR/AUD Timeframe H4 
Based on the EUR/AUD chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price movement shows a recovery phase after experiencing significant selling pressure since mid-August 2026. The EUR/AUD currency pair previously traded around 1.6380 and reached a peak near 1.6440, before a momentum shift brought the price into a bearish trend. The decline occurred gradually, accompanied by the formation of lower highs and lower lows indicating seller dominance in the medium-term market structure. Selling pressure became more evident when the price broke several horizontal support levels and moved below the Moving Average 100 (MA 100) and Moving Average 200 (MA 200). The decline brought EUR/AUD toward the 1.6100 area and approaching support at 1.6078. That area then became an important zone for buyers to push back against selling pressure. Entering mid to late September, the price began to show recovery. Buyers managed to push EUR/AUD off the lows and back toward 1.6200 to 1.6250. On the latest chart, the price is around 1.6259 and is testing a horizontal resistance area near the MA 200. This condition indicates that EUR/AUD is in a directional decision phase. The price recovery suggests increasing short-term bullish momentum, but the medium-term trend structure has not fully changed because the MA 200 still shows a downward tendency. Therefore, the ability of the price to break the nearest resistance and hold above both moving averages will be an important factor in determining the next direction.
Analysis of Moving Average 100 and Moving Average 200, The MA 100 shown with the blue line on the chart displays a fairly clear momentum shift. In early August, the MA 100 moved relatively flat around the 1.6380 area. However, after the sharp price decline in mid to late August, the MA 100 began to move downward consistently. The downward slope of the MA 100 indicates that prior selling pressure was quite dominant. Prices trading below that line show that sellers controlled EUR/AUD movement, while each price rise tended to face renewed selling pressure. However, since the price reached the 1.6078–1.6100 area, a change in market behavior occurred. Buyers began to push the price up and gradually brought EUR/AUD closer to the MA 100. On the latest chart, the MA 100 is around 1.6170–1.6175 and has begun to flatten and slightly rise. The current price position above the MA 100 is an indication that short-term bullish momentum is gaining strength. As long as the price can maintain a position above that blue line, the chance of continued recovery remains open. The MA 100 can also potentially act as dynamic support if a correction occurs in the near term. However, it should be noted that a rise above the MA 100 is not sufficient to confirm a medium-term trend reversal. Stronger confirmation requires the price to break horizontal resistance and hold above the MA 200. Meanwhile, the MA 200 shown with the red line still indicates a downward direction. This line previously moved relatively flat around 1.6380–1.6390 before starting to decline following the price weakness. On the latest chart, the MA 200 is around 1.6200–1.6210 and still has a bearish slope, although its decline has started to ease. This condition shows that the medium-term trend is still in a recovery phase from the previous bearish pressure. Prices moving above the MA 100 and MA 200 indicate increased buyer strength, but the horizontal resistance around 1.6250–1.6258 remains a significant barrier. If EUR/AUD can break that area with a convincing H4 candle close, the chance of forming a stronger bullish structure will increase. Conversely, failure to break the resistance could trigger a correction and bring the price back to test the MA 100 or the horizontal support below it.
Analysis of Horizontal Support and Resistance, The nearest resistance is around 1.6250–1.6258. This area is a main focus because the price is trading around it after rebounding from the 1.6078 area. In addition to being near the consolidation peaks over recent sessions, the zone is also close to the MA 200 area which previously acted as dynamic resistance. If buyers can break 1.6258 and keep the price above it with an H4 candle close, the opportunity to move toward resistance at 1.6329 will open. The 1.6329 level is a horizontal resistance that previously served as a consolidation area before a deeper decline occurred. Therefore, that level could become a zone where selling pressure reappears. If EUR/AUD can pass 1.6329, bullish momentum could continue toward the major resistance at 1.6441. However, to reach that area, the price needs to form a more consistent rising structure and overcome several technical obstacles first. The 1.6441 resistance is the upper limit visible on the chart and is an important area in assessing whether a medium-term bullish trend is truly re-established. On the other hand, the nearest support is at the 1.6141 level. This area is an important boundary for the continuation of the price recovery because it sits below the recent consolidation zone and near the rising structure formed in late September. If the price corrects, buyer response around 1.6141 will be an important indicator to gauge the strength of bullish momentum. As long as the 1.6141 support holds, the chance for the price to retest 1.6258 remains open. However, if that support is broken with strong selling pressure, EUR/AUD could continue the correction toward the major support at 1.6078. The 1.6078 level is a very important area as it is close to the lowest point formed during the observation period. This area previously attracted buyer response that initiated the price recovery. If the price retests that area and can hold, the possibility of a double bottom or double price base pattern beginning to form can be noted, although such a pattern would still require confirmation through a break of the resistance between the two lows. Conversely, if the price breaks 1.6078, the recovery structure will weaken significantly. Such a break could open the way for a continuation of the bearish trend and indicate that sellers are once again dominating the market.
Buyer and Seller Momentum and Possible Next Scenarios, From a price action perspective, buyers began to show increased strength after EUR/AUD reached the 1.6078 area. The rise since mid-September shows that demand has increased and sellers can no longer sustain the selling pressure as they did at the start of the decline. However, the current price around 1.6259 also indicates that buyers are facing a significant resistance zone. Failure to break 1.6258 may indicate that sellers are still active in defending that area. If this condition continues, a correction toward 1.6141 could occur before the market determines the next direction. The bullish scenario will be further confirmed if H4 candles consistently close above 1.6258, accompanied by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. In that case, the 1.6329 level becomes the next technical target, while 1.6441 becomes the next resistance if upward momentum is maintained. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the resistance and falls back through 1.6141, bearish pressure could increase. Movement toward 1.6078 should be monitored as a test of buyer strength. A break below that level would reinforce the bearish structure and reduce the validity of the recovery scenario. Thus, EUR/AUD is currently showing a fairly clear recovery momentum, but it still requires confirmation through a break of major resistance. Observing H4 candle closes, the slopes of the MA 100 and MA 200, and price reactions at horizontal levels will help identify momentum changes more measurably.
Conclusion, Overall, EUR/AUD on the H4 timeframe is in a recovery phase after a strong bearish trend since August. The last price around 1.6259 has moved above the MA 100 and MA 200, indicating that buyers are starting to take over short-term momentum. Nevertheless, the MA 200 still shows a downward tendency so the medium-term trend reversal is not yet fully confirmed. Resistance at 1.6250–1.6258 is the decisive level that needs to be broken to open the opportunity for a rise toward 1.6329 and then 1.6441. Meanwhile, support at 1.6141 is an important boundary to maintain the recovery structure, with 1.6078 as the major support to watch if selling pressure increases again. In conclusion, EUR/AUD has a chance to continue the bullish recovery as long as the price can hold above support at 1.6141 and break resistance at 1.6258. Conversely, failure to hold 1.6141 could bring the price back to test 1.6078 and strengthen bearish pressure. Confirmation through price movement and H4 candle closes is still required before taking trading decisions.
