FX.co ★ AUD/USD

Currency pair AUDUSD - daily chart. So far on the higher timeframe the wave structure is still developing upward. But now there is a correction phase, which was previously warned by the indicators MACD and CCI. There was previously a bearish divergence on them; only on the MACD it wasn't of the best class, but it was there nonetheless. And as a result, a decline began. Also, the Fed interest rate, which was raised for the first time in three years, strengthened the US dollar's position against major currency pairs. There was, of course, the option of a fake-out: like they would see the rate hike, demand for the US dollar would rise, they'd accumulate sellers and then pull it the other way. But no, everything happened without a fake-out; the US dollar simply strengthened, as the divergence indicated. Also, not long ago the price closed below the support level 0.7143, which has already acted as resistance; the price tested it from below and continued to fall. Most likely the price wants to reach the main ascending line here, which starts from the low of the past 2025 year. If you open the higher weekly chart, this is clearly visible. If it reaches the line, some rebound upward from it is likely. One can hope for a resumption of the uptrend if the 0.7143 level flips back and becomes support. In that case there's a high probability of going to this year's high. But it's too early to think about that; many days will pass before this could theoretically happen. This pair, after prolonged moves, tends to enter a sideways market, and here all the conditions for that are present. That is, a squeezed position between the 0.714 level and the ascending line. An accumulation zone may form during the sideways movement. As expected earlier, the price reached the ascending line, the general strengthening of the US dollar in the market continued, and here they broke through that line almost without a rebound. I think this breakout is false; the CCI indicates growth, preparing to move up; I assume it will go up to the resistance level 0.7086.

When a new low was formed, a bullish divergence appeared on the indicators. I expect a mirrored level to form at the edge of the decline soon; the resistance at 0.7009 will become support and the price will rise to around 0.7086. News to note today: 17:00 - US Consumer Confidence Index from the CB and the Number of Job Openings in the US labor market (JOLTS).