FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) faced persistent selling pressure for the second consecutive day, falling below the key psychological threshold of $4,000. This decline was driven by intensifying "hawkish" expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Strong macroeconomic data released on Thursday highlighted robust economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures; this not only bolstered market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December but also diminished the appeal of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. A preliminary report on third-quarter GDP showed that economic growth accelerated to 3.4% year-on-year—surpassing both the previous quarter’s 2.2% and market forecasts of 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.5% month-on-month (a 3.6% year-on-year increase) in September, while the core PCE price index climbed 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. These figures, combined with rising U.S. Treasury yields, strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening its monetary policy. At the same time, disappointing financial results from the technology sector—which sparked concerns regarding the profitability of massive investments in artificial intelligence—prompted investors to seek safety by shifting toward U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn led to a decline in U.S. bond yields. While the dollar retreated for the third consecutive session—amid reports of potential diplomatic progress in the Middle East conflict, such as direct contact between Vice President-elect Vance and Iranian security officials, as well as a new draft deal proposed by Qatar—these developments failed to alleviate the prevailing downward trend for gold. Furthermore, ongoing friction between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, combined with the risk of a new round of military action following the U.S. midterm elections, has kept the geopolitical risk premium intact. An incident involving a mine attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz drove up crude oil prices; this, in turn, bolstered market expectations for buying the U.S. dollar on dips, placing further downward pressure on gold. Gold has now recorded a monthly decline of approximately 3.5%. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, XAU/USD continues to trade within a clear descending parallel channel, maintaining an overall bearish structure. The price remains consistently below the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), confirming this weak pattern. Oscillators further validate this momentum: the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 35, and the MACD line sits deep within negative territory. Should the price fall below the previous monthly swing low of $3,975, it could decline further toward the lower boundary of the channel (approximately $3,946). A decisive break below this level could accelerate the sell-off. On the upside, any attempt at a rebound will first encounter horizontal resistance in the $4025–$4030 range. A breakout above this area could trigger a round of short covering, pushing prices toward the 100-period moving average ($4093) and the upper channel boundary ($4126). This zone represents a key supply area that must be breached if the overall downtrend is to be reversed.