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XAU/USD, GOLD
Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated during Thursday’s session, falling by more than 1.1% to trade at approximately $4,022. This decline followed the release of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the United States, which bolstered market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December. This comes after the Fed’s decision at its October meeting to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the headline PCE price index rose by 0.5% month-on-month in September, compared to 0.3% in August, while the annual inflation rate climbed from 3.4% to 3.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the annual core inflation rate edging up from 3.0% to 3.1%. These elevated inflation figures—driven in part by rising energy costs stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—coincided with robust U.S. GDP data for the third quarter. The data showed the U.S. economy growing at an annualized rate of 3.4%, surpassing market expectations of 3.2% and marking a notable acceleration from the 2.2% growth rate recorded in the second quarter. This macroeconomic backdrop—characterized by economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures—has reinforced hawkish market expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 83% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at its scheduled December meeting. During the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to price stability. He emphasized that while overall financial conditions have improved, he was reluctant to explicitly characterize them as "tight." Warsh noted that the Committee would review a substantial volume of incoming economic data ahead of its next meeting. Market strategists at Rabobank interpreted this as a precursor to monetary policy tightening in December, even though the Federal Reserve did not provide clear forward guidance. The voting results on the interest rate decision revealed an internal divide leaning toward a hawkish stance; the decision was ultimately approved by a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike. Despite this hawkish monetary policy stance, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to sustain its upward momentum following the release, retreating to approximately 102.00 after reaching an intraday high of 102.33. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields and global oil prices edged lower, while stock market volatility kept equity investors cautious. Nevertheless, gold failed to benefit from the weaker dollar and declining bond yields; market participants focused more on the negative implications of higher projected terminal interest rates than on gold’s traditional appeal as a safe-haven asset. This kept the non-yielding precious metal under persistent selling pressure.
