FX.co ★ #Ethereum chart analysis

Ethereum (ETH) faced significant downward pressure, falling by 4.8% and slipping past the $2,300 mark, following the release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the headline PCE price index rose by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year in September—figures that aligned perfectly with market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, also matching analysts' forecasts. These inflation figures reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy; according to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see an 80% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting. Previously, following its October meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10 to 2 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged—an outcome widely interpreted by financial markets as a "hawkish pause" (maintaining a hawkish stance while keeping rates steady). Amid persistent high inflation, the Ethereum derivatives market has recently shown a clear bearish bias. On the Binance platform, the "net trading volume" for Ethereum—a key indicator measuring the difference between active buy and sell orders among perpetual futures traders—has remained in negative territory. The 30-day moving average for this metric hit a four-month low of -$166.6 million on October 16, before recovering slightly to -$117.3 million by Wednesday. This suggests that active sellers and those holding short positions continue to dominate short-term price discovery. Nevertheless, despite this short-term selling pressure, perpetual futures funding rates have remained positive. Since funding rates—periodic payments exchanged between long and short positions, designed to anchor perpetual contract prices to spot market prices—are positive, it indicates that traders remain willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions, highlighting a structural bullish bias in the market over the long term. Meanwhile, following a sharp contraction in September, open interest (the total value of all outstanding derivative contracts) has remained relatively stable at approximately 12.7 million ETH throughout most of October. Amidst headwinds in the derivatives market, U.S.-based Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to see net outflows on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows, totaling $21.4 million. The sudden drop in prices triggered massive liquidations of leveraged positions across cryptocurrency trading platforms. Within 24 hours, over $224.5 million worth of Ethereum was liquidated, the vast majority of which ($187.6 million) consisted of forced liquidations of long positions. From a technical analysis perspective, the daily ETH/USDT chart reveals a clear downward trend; the price of Ethereum is currently trading below several key short- to medium-term trend indicators—specifically the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)—which are clustered densely between $2,311 and $2,445. Daily momentum indicators further confirm this bearish trend: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 34, while the Stochastic oscillator has fallen to 8. Although these extremely low levels suggest that Ethereum has entered oversold territory—implying that the current selling pressure may be nearing its end—the overall trend remains distinctly bearish. On the upside, initial technical resistance is found at $2,355, with the 100-day EMA positioned near $2,360. Furthermore, the 20-day EMA ($2,409) and the 50-day EMA ($2,443) collectively form a zone of heavy selling pressure. If Ethereum fails to reclaim the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $2,310, the short-term support level will be at $2,205, followed by a key support level at $2,107. Should the price fall sharply below $2,107—with sellers driving the asset into a broader market correction—major support levels at $1,972 and $1,828 will be tested.